Missions & Achievements

Mission

The mission of the lab is to develop and operate the advanced regional numerical weather prediction systems which focus on providing the accurate forecast for a tropical severe weather such as typhoons, thunderstorms, heavy rainfalls and other high impact weather events over Southern China and the tropical ocean.

 

Achievements

Based on CMA’s unified global and regional model GRAPES, the lab has been progressively developing and has operationally implemented at Guangzhou a specified version of GRAPES_Meso model known as GRAPES_TMM (GRAPES Tropical Meso-scale Model). The key techniques of the GRAPES_TMM model, includes a dynamical core, physical package of parameterization schemes and 3DVAR data assimilation scheme, have been modified and improved for being more suitable to predict typical weather and climate events occurred in the geographically and topographically complicated locations of Southern Chna. The GRAPES_TMM system is composed of three regional NWP models: The typhoon prediction model with horizontal resolution of 18 km (GRAPES-TRAMS), the Southern China regional heavy rain forecast model with horizontal resolution of 9 km (GRAPES-MARS), and the hourly update cycling analysis and forecast model with horizontal resolution of 3 km (GRAPES-CHEF). The operational prediction performances of GRAPES_TMM have been improved year by year. Statistics shows for the year of 2015 that the track errors for 24h, 48h and 72h forecasts are only 73.8km, 118.6km and 178.5km, respectively. The 18km resolution model has shown also its capability in predicting typhoons with complex and abnormal tracks, specially its superior skill in predicting the genesis of tropical storms. The predictions of the element variables, such as surface temperature, surface wind and upper air geopotential height are more skillful in comparison to other regional operational models which were run at other regional meteorological centers of CMA.